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롰塱Ĺϵ̽

ʱ䣺2019-11-29 Դڽо ߣ 13624

ժ    Ҫǿ“”еͻԪ, ҲӰؽĹؼȷ֤ȫڽɳͻ, ָ׼ʶ̬طϵҲаҪɫ̶“”IJչԱϸ, ָ“”Ϊڵʷìڵ̼ɳԱԼ屻Ŀ־ضԱ, Ϲ·ɳ·ͳʱ“”֮ͬĹϵ, δؽ“”ݵҪɫ

ؼʣ; ; ؽ; ͬ;

20113±8, 2017꿪ʼ, Զ˹Ϊ׵Ĺİջʧ, 1ӿ뷴ɵ̸н, ؽճȻ, ؽɱػȨͼʽѷȫڶѵ, ӺԽĪ“”, ֱӰ쵽ǵ () ͬ

“ж”Ĺмȵ, ΪָȨͳڱ“ж”ĹмΪ;, ΪһɳԱͳεĹ, ֮ǰ, һֱڽɶҺгòʾ, һжұ˳ʱΪĿ, е“”ظΪ“˹”Ľ뷢չ׳Ϊͼͨ̽“”Ĺϵ, “”ͬķչص, ָ“”ԼδؽݵĽɫ, ڴһӽDzؽĿǰؽüҹҵͼؽ, ľнǿʵ

һڽɳͻ?

“” (Sectarianism) һʹϷָͬڽ̻ (ͳƽ) Ⱥ֮Թϵڵһйϵ, 2Ҫָ֮ƫӼȲгϵ3ڱҪעǽɳͻ, ʹõ“”ں, “”ӵɿԼıɱԱɱȲ, ⳡԱ㳣ΪԴ“”ijͻɱ

һ۵, 񱻷Ϊ־ԵĽ, 12%Ϊ˹ʲҶɵһС֧ά, ֧ͬΪάɵͳɳ·µȨ;Լ64%ΪĽѷ, ڰȨͳ⵽Եַ֧;ǵѷڽ, ͽ (Լռ10%) , ³ (Լռ3%) (ȵ̫˵, Լռ1%) ںռѷͳ½֧ܵȨԼռ10%Ŀ, ȻǴѷɽͽ, ҪͬԼȺ, һʼ, ˵һӢڵһսʱΪĹ, Ϊͬ“˹-Ƥϵ”γɵͬ4, ҲҪɷȨ5Ϊɳͻǻ¼, Ľһ:

һ, ͬһ () ͬ, ҸųԱӵлͬϵγɵȡⷴӳͬʧ, Ϊ߲ܹ6Ȼ, , Գֳ“”“”ľ
 

롰塱Ĺϵ̽
 

20113, ʼ, ƽԿΪǷɢֲ, ȴ“”ĿȻѷɰ, Ŀںг“”“”“”ʻ, Ҫڵij“”ɫʵǹ, ǽʹõĹ7ǩ“ʿ”ǰԱһȳΪ䷴쵼ĺ, 2011ƽתΪװʱ, 쵼뿪20111120, 20ķɻ˰˹ֵܻ“ʿ”ԱԼʿڵ70ɳԱ˹̹齨ͼŽ׼º˹ԷӵĴ“ȫίԱ” (Syrian National Council, al-Majlis al-Watani al-Suri) , “ȫίԱθ”, “ʿ”, “ԪĹ”8ΪĿ, øҲʾӦŽĿ֧“”“”ȺȨ9

ͬʱ, Ȼǹװ𽥴˺ƽԿ, ܶװ֯һʼԲþ“”İ, ͵2011ļγɵľ“Ǿ” (ӢΪFree Syrian Army, FSA) ڴ˽׶, Ҳ“”Ļﲵⷴ, ¾»“” (National Defence Forces) , ڳ6ʱʹ“”ĻͬͰԵĹ, ܷڲ, ηǸͷȫ (National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, SNOC) , Լ˵Ǿڵװ֯, ҪǰԵ

ڶ, Ŧǽϵ, “”֯Ա, ǵΨһʵǵ“”ϵȴģͲ̶, ҲʹΨһ

“”, еζԱҲС: (1) ʶ̬2011, Ȩʶ̬ʹһЩ“”Ƕ˵Ӧ֧ߵİάͽͿ˼뷴10 (2) ԺܶԼ˵, ҳʹͬһԱѡһ, ͨ䵽վǷһɾ, (Ageidat) ϵ (Hadidiyin) Ͱ͸ (Baggara) Щͳѷɲ, Ϊڰµͳ±Եַ֧;෴, ͬΪѷɵı· (Beni Khalid) ڰ¸ͳչ֧11 (3) ü׼, ȻΪѷ, ĵдũƶ, ڽϸԣĵû̫ѷɽп, ռ, ɲ۽ɶԸԣͥӶ, ɼʱʤٴ, нʵѷɹʿͰĵѷ˵вײЧ, Щ˰а2012귴Ϯ֮, ѷռijҪھ϶ǽϲ˷:ԣȻЧ, ɾڽƶĶ˸ݵ

, “”ģʽ (۵ģʽ) ܽɳͻȻ򵥻, ʵǸӵڽصʶ̬չʹͬӸĽڵֶԸв

, DzɱشһʼȾ“”ɫݱ, 201134, ᰢ˹ (Banias) ķʾ߸ߺ:“ͽȥ³, ȥĹ”ķ˹ҲںŴ“һ”Ϊ“ѷͬѪ”12¼, º͵˹ɻԼķ“”, ڱʾԼάǽͬʱ϶ջ“”ľ, 13Щ̬ǡǡӡ֤˹Ҷ“”Ŀ־װͻǰһֱ

˺, “ɱ”¼2011427, ɳȹ (Shabiha) ؿ (Telkalakh) ɱ540ѷʱ, 14ͱָ“ɱ”˺, ƱԽԽ, 201112ڿ·ŷ (Kfar Oweid) ɱ100;20123ڻķ˹еİͲ·׺ (Bab Driad) Ϳķ· (karm al Zhoutan) ɱ50;20124̹ (Taftanaz) ɱ100;20125ں (Houla) ɱ108;20126ڿҮ (al Qubayr) ɱ78;20128ڴʿĴ (Darayya) ɱ200Щмܺ߶ѷɰ, ƴɱǷԼͬ, ԷѷɵɱҲб, , 20124ڻķ˹Ŀ (Karmallouz) 15˱ɱ;201212ڰ (Aqrab) 300˱ɱ;20139·ɭ (Maksar al-Hesan) 16˱ɱ;201310 (Sadad) 45˱ɱ15ЩܺҪǰɻͽ, Ҳָⶼ򼤽ʥս (Jihadists) , һӵȺҲԱ氢һ, 𽥳ɳΪװ, ˵ (Democratic Union Party, PYD) ķѷ֯Ŭ˹“֯”ķ֧Ҳ (Jubhat al-Nusra, JAN) ԽɵİӶƲԱԽ̻µϮҲʤö

ɼ, “”ȷʵеһҪԪ, ߿˵Ǵһ“”ͻʵܰȫΪɳͻ, Ϊⳡлкܶʶ̬벿ײ

“”IJ붯Ա

, “”㷺עһ“”ڵĴ () ͬ״Ӻζ?“”Ա½ɳԱΪ?

ڵһҲ“”IJ, ѧֿһִ۹, ΪͬǴͬͬ, ǾӢײԼִҷչľúڵ“”ϵ16ֽ, ν“”ֻùȥĽͬϷԼһǰִ۹, ΪɼΪŴеķ޶ʹഫ, ƽʱֵ⴦״̬, ʱпܱһЩͻ¼»ѺתΪɳͻ17ǰһֹ۵ΪͬҪ϶¹, һֹ۵ǿͬ¶ϵγ

“”Դ, ǰһֹ۵ִΪǵ“”Ҫǹ·ɳ·¸ȨĽ18ֺһֹ۵ǰִΪΪͳɳͻṩ˻19Ȼ, ݹ“”չʷ, ͻֽᷢͶһ, “”λξӢõ󲢷ϰ̨;һ, “”“”ǽɼߵĹϳ޵ı, ִìܻۺͼĽΪ, “”IJ¼ԭ:

һ, ŴɼìȻǽ“”ʻִܵᷢչӰ, ŴɼķìɱγɵʷҲȻвĥӰڽ֮̽ڵķ, ˹۹ʱѷԷѷɰʵеĽҲӰԶڰ˹۹ͳ, ۹ڲ̫ͽܵ, ά³˹Ϊ⵽Ⱥò㵽ɽס, , γ˽ǿĽͬ20ֵע, “”ٱλ, ˹۹ʵеǼͳ, طҲڽ, 쵼Ȩ, ԲײЩͽһҪ21ʹ1860˹۹ڴʿﱬķͽĽɳɱҲȫڹŴɼij, ѷ˹ּ˹ͳεֶԻͽҵɹԼӻµ22

ڶ, “ֶ֮”ίͳΪ˷ֻѷ˹Ϊķ, ίͳεǹ㷺֮IJ231920귨ίͳȷ, Ƚԭ () ǵΪ (19208) “άɹ” (19208) ʿ (1920) Ķ (1920) ɽ“” (19218) “ܱ³ȹ” (1922) ֽͳ;ֽ () ֳ“άɹ” (ʿͰĺϲ) ɽܱ³ȹIJ, ֱ1936ǿɵĽͬ, ͬʱ, ίͳεֱӸıԭǵĽȨṹ, ǵ“”24

, ǽηչ켣ߵʧڷ˵Ĺ, ѷɶԾҵ, ԼξܸƶṩĻ, Ⱥھеı쳣ʹڴ˺־аҪɫ, , άɾ196319661970оռλ1970, ڰάɵϰµ̨׸ıǵηչ켣ͬı, ͵ͬڼ˵һЩ, ϰ˹ֵܻѹ, ԼɳһͷŴ˹ֵܻԱȾٴ붼һ̶˴ִ“”Ļ

ڶ⼴“‘’Ա”˹ע“”ǻжһֱ, “”ͬλͱԱΪĿ·ԽսķǶһΪ, ɵĹбиɹȻ, ֻгںͶصĽϲŻһ, ʹ֮չΪͻ, ͨмʹڵʷ, ໥йϵij޺Ͳθ;, ɼھþ, Ҵ“Χ”Ľڴʵ½“”ȡ;ٴ, “вľӢ”ΪʵԼ󱧸ٽͷչijһȻ, ӢҲڶн“”ԱĻ——شλṹԱ;, ɳԱĶԱȺĿ־, ֮ȺΪ˰ȫǶԸֻ֧ٲԼʹñ25“”ԱϿķԪ, ־صĽЩԪطΪ, :

һ, ӳ, ǸɼԹűì, “вľӢ”ΪȴǼ“”ҪԭΪӢֻܷӳӾеĽɼĽŹϵ, 26ΪִĽɳͻȫڹŴij, ӢIJ뱾dzеҪ, “вľӢ”“”ԱӰش:һ, ͳȨеľӢǰ˹۹ίͳȨǽеľӢ, Ϊ˻öͬλڶ, طӢ2020, () Ϊ˼ǿԼȨӵίͳεֽͬλ;2070, ˹ֵܻϰµĶнѷɵĽͬλ;ֳɵ, ʾӢ2070İԼ, ǽͼӰǾƵɳذ, ǷǹҵĹж, ýʥս, ٳԼĿĶǵĽìλ, ײǿλ˵Ľͬ

ڶ, Ӷ, ǼԱ“”Ķ, ˲ûɥʧҵͬǰ, ȷʵڶ෽Ľɿ³˶ڶԱ“”“”;ֵע, “”IJǷ, ԳʹþаԵ“”ζԱ, “”ԱĻ᲻ǹҵı, Ȩв, “”ĶԱ۲ͬ, ΪûпȨij׿̨ijЩ, ʹȨı, ҲȻڶ“”ų˵, Ǵڶͬ, “”ͬռλ

, Ϊ“”, ԱȺĿ־, ؽ, һԱǵ“”ǰάʷϱѷȺľ, 1860ѷ˹ֶԻͽĴɱ, ɳԱʷԼıĿ־, ױξӢ, ʹ֮ΪԱ“”ijҪ:һ, ɳֿ֮־, ͼзɹ“”ߵͷԴһʼ, º͵ķɽбѹ, ڹٷýϽɶΪ˹“”, 𿼷ɳԱİȫĿֻ, ȡѷɷ߶֧Ŭ˹ߺ“˹”ֺǿһ, 2012귴ռ, “”Ѹµ, ˾“”ǩ“”ʲҶİ, (NDF) ֧ӹٷ׾, ɵطǰί³ͽĵطλڹ֮, ߽֧ͬȨҲ½, ³ȼʲϣ (Jaysh al-Muwahhideen, Army of Monotheists, Ϊ“һ߾”) 27Ͱά¿갢 (al-Muqwama as-Srya, The Syrian Resistance, Ϊ“ǵֿ˶”) 28ͬʱ, ǰܵƵ“”żʹʿгϳ˵³ȵɫǺʲҶɵƿ (Zulfiqar) ȱ־, 29ǰûаȫ־֮ǰܷ, Щ“”Ҳ“”һһ˵, “”ԶΨһ

“”ͬ

, 䲻ǽɳͻ, Գ“”Ԫ, “”ҲδؽмҪɫ, ΪȫĻȶ෽ؽսЩսʵնԴڶͬս, 仰˵, ؽֵĽ“”Ӱͬؽ

Ϊ, ʹܵش, ʹ“”õһ̶ȵ“”, ͬȻ, Ա“”ǵ“”Բ֮“”ǧ˿Ƶϵ, “”һ“”ĵ, 30ڷίͳ𽥹ǹҵij, ǹҶηչ“”Ӱ1970, άɳĹ·̨ͨ, ʹ“”֮ĸӹϵﵽǰδеĸ߶, ѡ·ºͰɳ·ͳʱ“”ͬĹϵԶ߹ϵв

·ʱ, “”ͬĹϵ:

һ, ʹ׵“”˼빹“”ͬ, һ̶“”, ˲۽ɶΪ“”, 31ͨᶨķɫ۵“ϵ”⽻ǿͬ, £ѷ˹ֲ, 1984εĸͳ˹·˹ (Mustafa Tlass) , ͷŴѷη32ٴ, ǿĻʷȶ෽潨, 33˳, Դǿͬ

ڶ, ڽϺѷ˹, ʵ˰άɵۺʵ, ʹ“”һ̶سһ, ϰ׻ͬͬʱ, ҲڽͬĺϷķִʲҶռ˴ѷ˹̲ͬ, ϰ²ûпƳ˹ʲҶɽ弰Ļ, ѷ˹̼Ļȵλ, ѧУнڵ˹֪ʶѷ˹֪ʶ34ͬʱ, ·ŬԼάɵĽͼȡ1973ܷ“ͳ˹”δɹ, ϰ˵ʲҶ쵼·¶ (Musa al-Sadr) άΪʲҶе12Ŀ, 35Ӷʹ·ϳΪͳ36һ, άۺʵ, ѷɵIJϰͳʱ, άھ˵ռ, 37ɵ³ɵɳԱ, 38ѷ˹ּ׻㷺Ľ, άҲԭäߵİάɳԱõǨӵ, γɴµĸнײܹýŹвײ, ѷ˹ɵ“˹ֵܻ”ʼ԰µ׻, ָΪ“˹”

, ֵעǿ, Ȼ˲ڱ۵“”, 39ΪжԼзҪõȺdzֵùעȻڽϴѷ˹, Ⱥ˵ȺɳԱϰ, ³˶ԼĴͳͥ40ͬʱ, ֧ռķǰ˽ (Ⱥ) ȴܵѹ“”ʶ̬, “ǰ”Ⱥͬǿнֹ, ˵ĻΪ“Ƿ”, ÿѧ, ͯׯֵ, ˴ͳ41Щ߼˿ì, ʹ“Ⱥͬ”, пʼԼȺ

ɳ·ʱ, “”ͬĹϵ:

һ, ȻǰǸɳڽΪƽع, ͬ“”ķڰɳͳγѹ2090, ʱΪͳ֮Ӱɳ·쵼˺Ϊ“ʿ֮”Ķݸĸ, ſ˶, dz׷֪ʶɺͷ֯ɵ䷴ȽԷԳҪȺ2000, ɳ·¼ͳ, ȴܿΥҪнһĸijŵ, ָֻ˴ǰѹ20051016, һЩɴ֪ʶǩ“ʿ”, һ“Ⱥڽ, йͬȨ”42Ĺ“”෴“”ҲάȺҪ:“غͳһĻ϶ǵĿĽ”42

ڶ, ɳθĸѷɵ, “”ìɳΪ˹Լ, 2005żһ˹Ϊ׵ѷм, ǿ԰άΪԼе43

, ɳľøĸѷ, , ʹ“”лɳ, ɳµľûύ· (Rami Makhlouf) ΪȨӢ, 44γԵ԰άΪ, һЩѷͽڵľӢײ, 45԰άŵĸо, ʵʩгĸ˶ͨ˵Ĺؼ, Ӱصѷũũҵ, ũdzͺͻʲ200610, Ƕظɺ, ټϲȡ, ϹĹ, ũ30˿, dzܱ߽ƶ46ٴ, øĸҲӰǵṹũ񹤻Լ˵Ԥ㶼, һЩתƻͷ֯Ȩѡϵ, Լʹׯ͸, 47“˹ֵܻ”Ϊڽ֯͸ЩȨյ

ɼ, “”ڹȥӰͬ, ڰ¸ִʱڱֵΪ븴, ؽü, Ȼɳȥʽƽ̸Ϊؽ˹עĻ, “”Ʋȥ谭ս, ƱӰ쵽ؽķȻɳŷ˵ȶ෽ʾǺ̸԰ɳ̨Ϊǰ, 48ֵ˼ǰɳdz8껹̨ϵԭ򵽵ʲô?ڰɳֽ̨ȥδ?˭ڰɳ֮󵣸ͳһҵ?ɷȨDzܽ“”ĸ, Ǵƽͽķչ?Ӿǵ“”, ʹùĻ뱻“”ѵĸΣյľ?, ؽܲǽȨ“”֮ͬì, ʹηչػ

ע

1 ֺ:ɳлվ:˹, ǡ, ʱ20171122http://world.huanqiu.com/exclusive/2017-11/11391751.html
2 F.Haddad, Sectarianism in Iraq:Antagonistic Visions of Unity, New York:Columbia University Press, 2011, p.31.
3 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sectarianism.
4 I.Rabinovcih, “The End of Sykes-Picot?Reflections on the Prospects of the Arab State System”, Brookings, Middle East Memo, February 2014.http://www.brookings.edu//media/research/files/papers/2014/02/sykes%20picot%20rabinovich/sykes_picot_rabinovich.pdf.
5 Rustum Mahmoud & Stephan Rosiny, “Opposition visions for preserving Syria’s ethnic-sectarian mosaic”, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, October 2016, pp.1-20.
6 F.Haddad, Sectarianism in Iraq:Antagonistic Visions of Unity, New York:Columbia University Press, 2011, p.37.
7 S.Ismail, “The Syrian Uprising:Imagining and Performing the Nation”, Studies in Ethnicity and Nationalism, 11, no.3 (2011) :pp.358-549.
8 Syrian National Council, “Political Program for the Syrian National Council”, 20 November 2011, http://goo.gl/ooTPfL.
9 Ibid.
10 S.Starr, Revolt in Syria:Eye-witness to the Uprising, New York:Columbia University Press, 2012, p.120.
11 D.Chatty, “Syria’s Bedouin enter the Fray:How Tribes could keep Syria Together”, Foreign Affairs, November 13, 2013, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/140266/dawn-chatty/syrias-bedouin-enter-the-fray.
12 A.Tabler, In the Lion’s Den:An Eyewitness Account of Washington’s Battle with Syria, Chicago, IL:Lawrence Hill Books, 2011, p.233.
13 S.Ismail, “The Syrian Uprising:Imagining and Performing the Nation”, Studies in Ethnicity and Nationalism, 11, no.3 (2011) , pp.358-549.
14 R.Fisk, “We will never Cease our Struggle until we Bring Down Assad”, Independent, 2 May 2011, http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-we-will-never-cease-our-struggle-until-webring-down-assad-2277704.html.
15 Christopher Phillips, “Sectarianism and conflict in Syria”, Third World Quarterly, Vol.36, No.2, 2015, pp.357-376.
16 F.Halliday, Nation and Religion in the Middle East, London:Saqi books, 2000, pp.23-37.
17 F.Haddad, Sectarianism in Iraq:Antagonistic Visions of Unity, New York:Columbia University Press, 2011, pp.17-20.
18 P.Droz-Vincent, “State of Barbary (Take Two) :From the Arab Spring to the Return of Violence in Syria”, Middle East Journal, 68, no.1 (2014) :33-58.p.40.
19 G.Abdo, “The New Sectarianism:The Arab Uprisings and the Rebirth of the Shia-Sunni Divide”, Brookings, SD:Saban Center for Middle East Policy Paper, April 10, 2013, p.2.
20 H.Batatu, Syria’s Peasantry, the Descendants of its Lesser Rural Notables, and their Politics, Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press, 1999, p.17.
21 H.Batatu, Syria’s Peasantry, the Descendants of its Lesser Rural Notables, and their Politics, Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press, 1999, p.12.
22 B.Masters, Christians and Jews in the Ottoman Arab World:The Roots of Sectarianism, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2004, p.8.
23 B.T.White, The Emergence of Minorities in the Middle East:The Politics of Community in French Mandate Syria, Edinburgh:Edinburgh University Press, 2011, p.44.
24 :ǵȺҳ⡷, о20161, 33ҳ
25 S.J.Kaufman, Modern Hatreds:The Symbolic Politics of Ethnic War, New York:Cornell University Press, 2001, pp.3-12.
26 F.Haddad, Sectarianism in Iraq:Antagonistic Visions of Unity, New York:Columbia University Press, 2011, pp.17-20.
27 A.J.al-Tamimi, “The Druze Militias of Southern Syria”, Syria Comment, November 13.2013, http://www.jos hualandis.com/blog/druze-militias-southern-syria/.
28 A.J.al-Tamimi, “A Case Study of ‘The Syrian Resistance’, A Pro-Assad Militia Force”, Syria Comment, September 22, 2013, http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/aymenn-al-tamimi-speaks-to-ali-kayali-and-pro files-the-syrian-resistance-a-pro-assad-militia-force/.
29 O.A.Rifai, “The War of Identities amidst the Syrian Uprising:The Continual Reproduction of Sub-state Identities and the Quest to Reconstruct Syrian National Identity”, MPhil diss., University of St.Andrews, June 2014.https://research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk/handle/10023/6353
30 :ڽͬ19“ͬ”Դ, ڽĻ20166, 13-21ҳ
31 Eberhard Kienle, “Arab Unity Schemes Revisited:Interest, Identity and Policy in Syria and Egypt”, International Journal of Middle East Studies, Vol.27, No.1, 1995, pp.53-67.
32 Oded Haklai, “A Minority Rule over a Hostile Majority:The Case of Syria”, Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, Vol.6, No.3, Autumn 2000, pp.19-50.
33 ŵ:ͳʱǰάɵͬ, ڽĻ20171, 24ҳ
34 J.Landis, “Islamic Education in Syria:Undoing Secularism”, Paper presented at “Constructs of Inclusion and Exclusion:Religion and Identity Formation in Middle Eastern School Curricula, ” Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University, 2003.https://www.ou.edu/content/dam/International/IPHome/Bios/landisdoc/IslamicEduinSyria.pdf.
35 Christopher Phillips, “Sectarianism and conflict in Syria”, Third World Quarterly, Vol.36, No.2, 2015, pp.357-376.
36 ʷ, άɳڲ˹Ͽ, ѷʲҶҲΪ:“”밢άɱϵʷ, ڽо20126
37 ŵ:ͳʱǰάɵͬ, ڽĻ20171, 25ҳ
38 Derek Hopwood, Syria:1945-1986:Politics and Society, London:Unwin Hayman, 1988, p.93.
39 “”һSectarianismǿһ“Ⱥ”
40 Christopher Phillips, “Sectarianism and conflict in Syria”, Third World Quarterly, Vol.36, No.2, 2015, pp.357-376.
41 K.Yildiz, The Kurds in Syria:The Forgotten People, London:Pluto Press, 2005, pp.91-93.
42 Damascus Declaration (English) , The Damascus Declaration for Democratic National Change, 16 October, 2005, http://goo.gl/LT krH5.
43 R.Hinnebusch, “Syria:From ‘Authoritarian Upgrading’ to Revolution?”, International Affairs, 88, no.1 (2012) :95-113.
44 S.Ismail, “Changing Social Structure, Shifting Alliances and Authoritarianism in Syria”, edited by F.Lawson, Demystifying Syria, London:Saqi, 2009, pp.13-28.
45 S.Azmeh, “The Uprising of the Marginalised:A Socio-economic Perspective of the Syrian Uprising”, LSE Middle East Centre Paper Series, London:LSE, November 6, 2014.http://www.lse.ac.uk/middleEastCentre/Events/events2014/SA-13-10-14.aspx.
46 F.De Chatel, “The Role of Drought and Climate Change in the Syrian Uprising:Untangling the Triggers of the Revolution”, Middle Eastern Studies, 50, no.4 (2014) :521-535.
47 R.Hinnebusch, “Syria:From ‘Authoritarian Upgrading’ to Revolution?”, International Affairs, 88, no.1 (2012) :95-113.
48 ɳسδӦаɳ:ɽ׶ҲС, οϢ2017816, http://war.163.com/17/0816/08/CRUST1R3000181KT.html

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